The 2026 forecast · pre-tournament

Who does silverware fancy for 2026?

All 48 squads for the Canada/Mexico/USA World Cup, ranked by the club trophies their players had won before kick-off — the same pedigree measure we ran across every tournament since 1998, now pointed at the future instead of the past.

No fixtures, no results: just the trophy cabinets walking into the tournament, and what our 1998–2022 model says that pedigree is worth.

Silverware's pick

Argentina

The most-decorated squad of the 48 — 506 pedigree points, 85% of the squad already title-winners.

4.2×

implied odds of a better result than an average 2026 side

Squad pedigree506

17× World Cup30× Copa América6× Champions League4× Copa Libertadores1× Bundesliga11× La Liga+18 more

Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF) · Leandro Paredes (Boca Juniors) · Julián Alvarez (Atlético Madrid)

“Implied edge” applies the fitted historical odds-ratio (1.61× per standard deviation) to each squad's within-tournament pedigree z-score. It is a pedigree signal, not a bookmaker's price.

Bad news for the big names

Traditional heavyweights arriving with thinner cabinets than usual — judged against their own history, not just the field.

Bad news for

Turkey

Arrive ranked 17th of 48 by club pedigree — 0.9 SD below their own 1998–2022 benchmark. It is the least-decorated squad they have ever brought.

Arda Güler (Real Madrid CF) · Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter Milan) · Abdülkerim Bardakcı (Galatasaray S.K. (football))

Bad news for

Spain

Arrive ranked 5th of 48 by club pedigree — 0.5 SD below their own 1998–2022 benchmark.

Fabián Ruiz (Paris Saint-Germain FC) · Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Bilbao) · Rodri (Manchester City F.C.)

Dark horses

Squads turning up more decorated than they ever have — pedigree on the rise.

Dark horse

Morocco

Arrive ranked 9th of 48 by club pedigree — 1.0 SD above their own 1998–2022 benchmark.

Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain FC) · Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid CF) · Noussair Mazraoui (Manchester United F.C.)

Dark horse

Croatia

Arrive ranked 7th of 48 by club pedigree — 0.8 SD above their own 1998–2022 benchmark.

Luka Modrić (AC Milan) · Mateo Kovačić (Manchester City F.C.) · Ivan Perišić (PSV Eindhoven)

Dark horse

Austria

Arrive ranked 14th of 48 by club pedigree — 0.7 SD above their own 1998–2022 benchmark.

David Alaba (Real Madrid CF) · Konrad Laimer (FC Bayern Munich) · Paul Wanner (PSV Eindhoven)

Dark horse

United States

Arrive ranked 16th of 48 by club pedigree — 0.7 SD above their own 1998–2022 benchmark.

Timothy Weah (Olympique de Marseille) · Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) · Chris Richards (Crystal Palace F.C.)

The full board — all 48

World Cup / internationalChampions LeagueLeague titlesDomestic cupsEuropa · super cups · Club World Cup

Argentina4.2× implied edge506

17× World Cup30× Copa América6× Champions League4× Copa Libertadores1× Bundesliga+19 more

Brazil3.89× implied edge484

6× Copa América1× Confederations Cup15× Champions League13× Copa Libertadores12× La Liga+15 more

France3.34× implied edge441

4× World Cup9× Nations League14× Champions League10× Bundesliga8× La Liga+13 more

Portugal3.1× implied edge420

1× European Championship29× Nations League16× Champions League1× Bundesliga6× La Liga+11 more

Spain2.4× implied edge349

16× European Championship10× Nations League5× Champions League2× Bundesliga21× La Liga+12 more

Germany2.08× implied edge309

1× World Cup4× Confederations Cup8× Champions League45× Bundesliga1× La Liga+8 more

Croatia1.38× implied edge193

11× Champions League8× Bundesliga5× La Liga2× Premier League2× Serie A+9 more

Uruguay1.29× implied edge174

1× Copa América2× Champions League11× Copa Libertadores8× La Liga1× Ligue 1+13 more

Morocco1.22× implied edge159

15× Africa Cup of Nations4× Champions League1× Bundesliga4× La Liga5× Ligue 1+9 more

England1.21× implied edge157

4× Champions League2× Bundesliga2× La Liga12× Premier League2× DFB-Pokal+5 more

Netherlands1.2× implied edge155

2× Champions League1× Bundesliga4× La Liga8× Premier League2× Serie A+9 more

Belgium1.15× implied edge141

3× Champions League3× La Liga3× Ligue 110× Premier League3× Serie A+11 more

Senegal1.06× implied edge118

9× Africa Cup of Nations4× Champions League3× Bundesliga5× Ligue 11× Premier League+10 more

Austria1.05× implied edge117

4× Champions League14× Bundesliga2× La Liga1× Serie A1× Eredivisie+6 more

Colombia1.05× implied edge116

2× Champions League4× Copa Libertadores4× Bundesliga3× La Liga1× Premier League+14 more

United States1.03× implied edge110

4× CONCACAF Gold Cup43× CONCACAF Nations League1× Champions League2× Bundesliga3× Ligue 1+8 more

Turkey0.97× implied edge93

1× Champions League1× La Liga1× Ligue 13× Serie A1× Eredivisie+5 more

Scotland0.92× implied edge78

1× Champions League2× Premier League1× Serie A24× Scottish Premiership1× Coppa Italia+4 more

Ivory Coast0.91× implied edge77

13× Africa Cup of Nations1× Bundesliga1× La Liga2× Serie A3× Primeira Liga+7 more

Qatar0.91× implied edge75

25× AFC Asian Cup

Mexico0.86× implied edge62

33× CONCACAF Gold Cup19× CONCACAF Nations League3× Eredivisie2× Primeira Liga

Canada0.86× implied edge61

1× Champions League7× Bundesliga1× Ligue 11× Serie A2× Primeira Liga+4 more

South Korea0.85× implied edge56

2× Champions League2× Bundesliga3× Ligue 11× Serie A5× Scottish Premiership+5 more

Algeria0.84× implied edge55

4× Africa Cup of Nations2× Champions League5× Premier League2× Coupe de France4× EFL Cup+1 more

Norway0.83× implied edge52

1× Champions League4× Premier League1× Serie A1× Eredivisie2× Primeira Liga+8 more

Ecuador0.83× implied edge52

2× Champions League1× Copa Libertadores1× Bundesliga2× Ligue 11× Premier League+8 more

Switzerland0.81× implied edge45

1× Champions League1× Bundesliga2× Premier League2× Serie A1× Scottish Premiership+5 more

Japan0.8× implied edge39

1× AFC Asian Cup2× Bundesliga5× Scottish Premiership2× Süper Lig1× Copa del Rey+5 more

Sweden0.78× implied edge34

1× Premier League4× Primeira Liga4× Scottish Premiership1× Copa del Rey1× DFB-Pokal+3 more

Paraguay0.78× implied edge34

3× Copa Libertadores1× Serie A4× Argentine Primera División6× Campeonato Brasileiro Série A1× EFL Cup

Bosnia and Herzegovina0.76× implied edge27

1× Bundesliga2× Premier League2× Eredivisie1× Scottish Premiership2× Coppa Italia+4 more

Czech Republic0.75× implied edge23

3× Bundesliga1× Eredivisie3× DFB-Pokal2× Europa Conference League

Curaçaodebut22

11× Eredivisie

Egypt0.75× implied edge21

1× Champions League2× Premier League3× EFL Cup2× FA Cup1× Super Cup

Ghana0.74× implied edge18

1× La Liga1× Ligue 12× Copa del Rey2× Coupe de la Ligue1× EFL Cup+3 more

Australia0.73× implied edge16

3× AFC Asian Cup1× Scottish Premiership1× Süper Lig1× Europa League

DR Congodebut11

2× Primeira Liga2× Coupe de France1× EFL Cup1× FA Cup1× Europa League

Tunisia0.72× implied edge10

2× Ligue 11× Scottish Premiership

Cape Verdedebut8

1× Primeira Liga1× Russian Premier League1× Süper Lig1× Coupe de France1× Coupe de la Ligue

Uzbekistandebut5

1× EFL Cup1× FA Cup1× Europa Conference League

New Zealand0.71× implied edge5

1× Bundesliga1× DFB-Pokal

Iran0.7× implied edge4

1× Eredivisie1× Primeira Liga

Haitidebut2

1× Russian Premier League

Saudi Arabia0.7× implied edge1

1× Coupe de France

Iraqdebut0

Panama0.69× implied edge0

Jordandebut0

South Africa0.69× implied edge0

7 debutant nations arrive with little or no club-pedigree history: Curaçao, DR Congo, Cape Verde, Uzbekistan, Haiti, Iraq, Jordan.

The honest caveat

This is a pedigree forecast, not a prediction of results. It counts club silverware won before kick-off and nothing else — no form, no fixtures, no draw. And as everywhere on this site, pedigree is associated with winning, not a cause of it: elite players win club trophies andget picked by strong nations. Treat it as “who walks in with the heaviest trophy cabinet,” then enjoy watching the football make a mockery of it.