Every new parent knows the necessity of finding TV to entertain oneself while shushing and/or holding a baby.
Recently, when in this situation, I discovered the BBC had laid out a bunch of nostalgic World Cup content in the run up to this year’s tournament. Next thing I know, iPlayer is teeing up the highlights of the 2006 World Cup final. After a shocking realisation that 2006 was somehow 20 years ago (?!), I recalled snapshots of that final from my memory; Zidane’s cross-bar hitting panenka, headbutt on Materazzi (+ dismissal) and Italy’s eventual victory on penalties… Meanwhile, on the TV, the starting XIs appeared.
I was struck how both teams were stacked with absolute legends…
But it raised a question — did these players get to the final because they were legends, or, did this World Cup define their legendary status? And that question inspired this work: scoring every World Cup team based on their squad’s cumulative silverware, and seeing if it predicts World Cup success. In other words — do footballing legends win world cups, or do world cups make legends?
I pulled historic individual honours and created a cumulative score for every squad in World Cups from 1998–2022.
How pedigree is scoredthe weights, in one place
Every major trophy a player had won before the tournament — club and country — is worth points by prestige. A player's score is the sum; a squad's score is the sum of its players. More silverware, and more prestigious silverware, means a longer bar.
One simple ladder by competition class — the Champions League on top, the World Cup and Europe's elite just below, and everything outside the top tier scored zero. The story holds under four different weighting schemes.
In every bar that follows, the colour of each segment shows the kind of trophy behind it:
Firstly, let’s look at the 2006 final:
Italy won on penalties
Clearly this shows how the France team were bonafide legends already. Italy, however, had far fewer historic championships. It was clear: this final helped create the legendary status of Buffon, Pirlo and Cannavaro (who later became one of the very few defenders to ever win the Ballon d’Or).
Underperforming legends
This data also showed how the most decorated squads tend to hugely underperform. Take Spain in 2014, with 187 major trophies between them — the most decorated squad I measured — leaving in the group stages. Same with Germany in 2018, 2022. I suspect this may be a consequence of older players continuing to be selected due to their existing reputation.
Spain 2014
#1 of 32 by pedigree · 100% with a title
Germany 2022
#2 of 32 by pedigree · 73% with a title
France 2002
#1 of 32 by pedigree · 96% with a title
England
The golden generation of 2006/2010 was indeed a top pedigree team in both world cups. England’s best run in 2018 actually happened when England were rated just #13 (out of 32 teams).
You can see it in the games. In 2010, England walked into the last 16 as the more decorated side — and were taken apart:
By 2018, with the golden generation gone, England were the underdogs — and rode it all the way to the semi-finals, grinding out knockouts like this one on penalties:
The biggest upset
And the single biggest upset in the whole dataset belongs — of course — to the most decorated squad I measured. Reigning world champions Spain, a pedigree of 686, against a Chile side carrying just 31:
Other notable findings
Croatia’s pedigree runs deceptively high. In 2022 they ranked #8 of 32 — ahead of most of Europe, from a nation of under four million — but it’s a mirage of concentration: just 46% of the squad held a major title, and three Real Madrid and Chelsea names carried 72% of it between them.
You can explore every final in detail, and even explore the entire dataset here.
Methodology
The squads and each player’s honours come from Wikipedia. For every player I counted only the silverware won before a tournament began, and weighted competitions by prestige — a Champions League counts for more than a domestic cup, and anything outside the top tier scores nothing. A squad’s score is the sum across its players.